forex fire

It is so easy to become completely bogged down trying to keep up with the company news updates, you know, the feeds you get on the financial news channels. This causes you to get frustrated and often confused. There’s a lot of very interesting information, but does it serve to help our trading decisions? Remember, no two people have the same perspective on anything, and that includes the stock market. The analysts you watch and listen might well have very good and valid reasons for talking a stock up or down, depending upon their own investment criteria.

Here are 3 reasons to help you see why technical analysis works:

1. Every day trading decision, and I mean every one of them, without exception, ends up in one and only one result; price. The price of the stock at close of trading is where the whole picture finishes. You can do anything you like with company data; analyse it, pull it apart, listen to speculators, traders, journalists, but the result a closing is always the same.

2. It is correct that history does not necessarily reflect the future, and that’s quite right, no one would argue the case. But, and it’s a big but, it has been proven time over, that human psyche does repeat itself, the brain functions the in the same manner all the time. What you see on technical day trading charts is the result of past thinking, of past psyche. It will be argued until the end of time that you cannot trade for the future, based on historical data. But the technical data that is delivered and shown by these charts does lend itself to narrowing the odds enormously in our favour, IF used correctly. There are too many successful technical traders to suggest otherwise.

3. To see an excellent example, watch the price of a stock that’s moving in a trend, or range, and you can see that same patterns, by and large being repeated, day in, day out. All of a sudden, the price pushes beyond the upper and lower price boundaries that it’s held for the past few days or weeks, and you have a potential buy or sell trading opportunity.

There are traders who use only fundamentals, and still argue against technical trading, but if you have the time, a blend of both is best. The advantage of using chart set ups is that you can better gauge, and fine tune, where you are going to place you entry and exit positions.

How would you like to discover more about the techniques successful traders use to make profitable trades?

Download them free here: Day Trading Course

Ian Jackson is an authority on Day Trading information, learning the hard way - and now he reveals how you can learn the business too, without all the growing pains.

The day trading margin is a common method in the forex market where traders buy and sell currencies as dollars, pounds, euros, yen and so on.

The profit possibility in this peculiar market is based on the fluctuation of the different currencies. This fluctuation is the consequence of from daily forecasts of the gross domestic product of the world nations and other factors that influence the value of a currency as the political stability, the inflation rates, official economic reports and the general economic conditions.

If the financial news regarding Europe are negative, for example, the foreign exchange traders will want to sell off their Euros because they fear the Euro is going to less value. When the Euro recovers, the same marketers will sell it for another currency, in order to make a profit.

All these currencies transactions are not literal, however, they are performed on margin, i.e. the buyer has not to pay all the sum he’s buying but only the 1%. This is what is called “buying on margin” or “buying on leverage”.

In the forex market you have to invest only $1000 to actually get $100,000. It’s possible because the fluctuations of the major world currencies are less than 1% a day, so your investment normally covers the gains and losses.

This fact alone marks an important difference between the forex market and the stock exchange where the typical fluctuation can be as much as 10% in one day.

The basic lot for trading the forex is normally 100.000 units (remember, the traders has to pay only 1000 for this lot) and many foreign exchange brokers don’t handle any lower sum.

However some firm allows to establish a day trading margin account with as little as $100. This solution is ideal for beginners traders because it offers a safe possibility to practice the currency trading market avoiding the risk of the standard trading account.

Forexyard, the leader in online currency trading, provides real-time execution, free forex charts and quotes, and 24 hour commission-free forex trading. When you decide to get a real money account you can establish a day trading margin account with as little as $100. Click here to check it out now!

One of the fastest growing investment opportunity is the foreign exchange, also known as “FX” or “forex.” The forex system is an investment vehicle in which you trade large volumes currency and make money by taking advantage of the changes in currency exchange rates. Many times, this requires that trades be conducted at odd hours, over long distances, and in large quantities. It’s important for an investor to have good software so as to insure that their on-line forex trading is profitable.

Automated forex trading systems can make sure that an investor will not miss out on profitable trades, and that these trades are completed quickly. Automatic forex software can be tailored to fit any FX strategy and will pro-actively seek out the best trades and conduct them quickly. These “software robots” remove much of the hassle involved with using human traders to conduct business on the currency exchanges, but more importantly, they are able to gather and accumulate information quickly and respond to it instantaneously.

The unique worldwide nature of the currency exchange market means that good deals may occur late at night or thousands of miles away, and the information regarding the trade may be buried deep within exchange rate listings. Currency exchange rates often change rapidly in response to government intervention or financial news, and forex software insures that trades in response to such actions are conducted immediately. There is often very little time to react in the constantly changing world of currency exchange, but good forex software insures that the trades get done on time, no matter when or where they need to happen.

While it is still possible to conduct trades the without automated software programs, essentially all investors trading in the FX market are relying on some type of quality trading/analysis automated forex Forex software opens the doors to smaller investors with less currency and resources to trade with, and enables them to do profitable day trading.

Since the forex markets are open twenty-four hours a day, five days a week, it’s extremely difficult for small investment automatic and individual investors to manually keep track of the constantly shifting exchange rates. Automated forex software is always active to monitor and make the trades that it has been instructed to look for.

Alison Wells is an avid Forex Trader who relies on automated Forex software trading systems to make winning trades. She has many years of foreign currency trading experience and writes frequently on Forex trading systems and self-adaptive trading software. She can be found at http://www.WinningForexProgram.com/?id=EzineF10

The Federal Reserve is easily one of the most powerful–and misunderstood–of all American institutions. The Federal Reserve’s steady hand as America’s “central banker” has been especially critical to U.S. economic performance during the past 25 years. Why?

The management of fiscal policy (taxation and spending) during the majority of those years by various Administrations and Congresses was less than admirable. As a result, the enormous and irresponsible buildup of Federal debt remains, for now, our collective lasting legacy.

Today’s Federal Reserve–under the control of Chair Ben Bernanke–enjoys a very high level of credibility as an inflation fighter. In the world of central banks, there is no loftier objective…nor any greater success.

Inflation Control

The Federal Reserve’s number one responsibility is to maintain American price stability. It has been largely successful over the past 15 years in doing so, with consumer prices rising at an average annual rate of 2.7% since 1991. More comprehensive measures of inflation have risen at even lesser rates. In contrast, U.S. consumer prices rose an average of 6.2% annually during the ’70s and ’80s, with a painful bout of double-digit inflation in 1979 and 1980.

Today’s Fed is very concerned that higher energy prices now impacting the economy will contribute to a broad series of price increases for thousands of products and services across the economy. Such a pass-through of energy costs keeps Fed officials awake at night.

Add in volatile commodity and gold prices, the fear of further terrorism in the U.S. and abroad, enormous purchases of U.S. Treasury securities by foreign investors, and a handful of other topics, and one gets a feel for the life of a Fed official. It is not for the faint hearted.

In its efforts to maintain price stability, the Fed many times is called upon to…

1) “take the punch bowl away from the party” (to slow the economy) when it gets a bit too rowdy

2) administer preventive “medicine” to its patient (the U.S. economy) when necessary in order to minimize the chance of a more serious “inflation disease” later, which would require even more drastic action (more painful medicine)

Note: Most changes to monetary policy are enacted by the Fed adding reserves to or withdrawing reserves from the banking system through a process called open market operations. The result of such moves is to increase or decrease the Fed’s most critical interest rate, the federal funds rate. The federal funds rate is the rate at which commercial banks and certain other financial institutions invest excess funds with other commercial banks on an overnight unsecured basis.

The federal funds rate is easily the most important of ALL short-term interest rates. Changes in the federal funds rate immediately impact the level of all other short-term interest rates, including the prime lending rate and various short-term investment rates. The discount rate, the other rate controlled by the Fed, is now almost irrelevant in today’s conduct of monetary policy.

The “Dog” and the “Tail”

While many of the Federal Reserve’s official responsibilities remain unchanged from earlier years, the nature of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy flexibility has changed markedly during the past 25 years. In my opinion, the Federal Reserve is no longer the primary determinant of when monetary policy changes are necessary–the U.S. bond market is.

Since the Federal Reserve’s creation in 1913 until perhaps the late 1970s, the Federal Reserve solely determined monetary policy. The nation’s bond market–much smaller during those times–then quietly fell in line. During that era, the Federal Reserve was the “dog,” while the bond market was the “tail.” This relationship has now reversed.

Today’s reality is that the Federal Reserve, to a large extent, provides the monetary policy mix that is demanded by a powerful and very inflation-sensitive bond market. The market is now the “dog,” while the Federal Reserve is the “tail.”

Today’s inflation-wary bond market provides the Federal Reserve with less monetary policy flexibility than at any time in its history. Any future Federal Reserve attempt to over-stimulate U.S. economic growth with “easy money” would be met with rising long-term interest rates (to protect lenders/investors from impending higher inflation) and cries of Federal Reserve irresponsibility.

Conducting Monetary Policy

How is proper monetary policy determined by the Federal Reserve? The Fed is clearly concerned about the inflation implications of today’s historically tight labor markets and the wage pressures that could result.

In addition (and figuratively speaking), today’s Federal Reserve conducts monetary policy using an old-style balancing scale with four trays.

In separate trays, the Fed balances:

1) Criticism from the “hawks,” who see inflation under every rock. The hawks are typically critical of the Fed, noting that the institution is not aggressive enough in diffusing inflationary expectations

2) Criticism from the “doves,” who constantly argue that monetary policy is too restrictive. The doves argue that the Fed has usually gone too far in monetary tightening or not eased policy enough, and that the Fed frequently threatens the economy with the “r” word…recession

3) Recent price performance of gold and various other commodities. Price movements in these commodities can serve as inflation red flags, as well as signs of monetary policy that is too restrictive

4) The current shape and slope of the U.S. Treasury yield curve, including the most recent direction of 10-year U.S. Treasury Note and 30-year U.S. Treasury Bond yields. Such information provides a clue as to the bond market’s collective view of inflation expectations

Only when all trays are in “relative balance” does the Fed consider monetary policy to be appropriate.

The Fed must also consider the inflation implications of U.S. dollar strength or weakness relative to other global currencies. The Fed must also consider the conduct of monetary policy by other major central banks including the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan…

…not a task for the faint-hearted

Economic futurist Jeff Thredgold is President of Thredgold Economic Associates, a professional speaking and economic consulting company.

Since 1976 Jeff’s weekly economic and financial newsletter, Tea Leaf, has been helping people make sense of the tangled maze of the U.S. and global economy and financial markets in a light, approachable style. Sign up to receive the free Tea Leaf email newsletter and let Jeff Thredgold show you how to use this information to enhance your financial well-being for years to come.

Jeff is the author of econAmerica: Why the American Economy is Alive and Well…and What That Means to Your Wallet (Wiley, 2007), and On the One Hand…The Economist’s Joke Book.

His career includes 23 years with $96 billion banking giant KeyCorp, where he served as Senior VP and Chief Economist. He now serves as economic consultant to $50 billion Zions Bancorporation, which has banks in 10 states.

It is so easy to become completely bogged down trying to keep up with the company news updates, you know, the feeds you get on the financial news channels. This causes you to get frustrated and often confused. There’s a lot of very interesting information, but does it serve to help our trading decisions? Remember, no two people have the same perspective on anything, and that includes the stock market. The analysts you watch and listen might well have very good and valid reasons for talking a stock up or down, depending upon their own investment criteria.

Here are 3 reasons to help you see why technical analysis works:

1. Every day trading decision, and I mean every one of them, without exception, ends up in one and only one result; price. The price of the stock at close of trading is where the whole picture finishes. You can do anything you like with company data; analyse it, pull it apart, listen to speculators, traders, journalists, but the result a closing is always the same.

2. It is correct that history does not necessarily reflect the future, and that’s quite right, no one would argue the case. But, and it’s a big but, it has been proven time over, that human psyche does repeat itself, the brain functions the in the same manner all the time. What you see on technical day trading charts is the result of past thinking, of past psyche. It will be argued until the end of time that you cannot trade for the future, based on historical data. But the technical data that is delivered and shown by these charts does lend itself to narrowing the odds enormously in our favour, IF used correctly. There are too many successful technical traders to suggest otherwise.

3. To see an excellent example, watch the price of a stock that’s moving in a trend, or range, and you can see that same patterns, by and large being repeated, day in, day out. All of a sudden, the price pushes beyond the upper and lower price boundaries that it’s held for the past few days or weeks, and you have a potential buy or sell trading opportunity.

There are traders who use only fundamentals, and still argue against technical trading, but if you have the time, a blend of both is best. The advantage of using chart set ups is that you can better gauge, and fine tune, where you are going to place you entry and exit positions.

How would you like to discover more about the techniques successful traders use to make profitable trades?

Download them free here: Day Trading Course

Ian Jackson is an authority on Day Trading information, learning the hard way - and now he reveals how you can learn the business too, without all the growing pains.

Observing the movement of stock prices in Japanese Candlestick format and in real-time depiction is somewhat akin to watching the printout of an electrocardiogram in motion. One is seeing at first hand the story of an unfolding investor psychology. The first practitioner of Candlestick price representation, so many centuries ago in Japan, was no doubt seeking to develop a strategy or a system of tactics which would deliver to him a trading advantage which would assist him in planning his next moves. The technique of price recordation which he developed was based on the principle of expanding the “line,” or “bar,” on a chart representing the range of prices for a given time period so as to create a fattened-out line, or cylinder, in which the opening price and the closing price for that time period would be the upper and lower limits of the cylinder. If the closing price of the day were higher than the opening price, then the cylinder would not be filled in, or would be left “white;” whereas if the closing price of the day were lower than the opening price, then the cylinder would be filled in, or made “black.”

This style of price display presented a visual picture which was instantly recognized by the eye. It was easy to discern the mood of the rice traders which was in effect during that session; and, depending on the relationship of that particular Candle bar’s relationship to adjacent and nearby bars, the operator had a basis for making a prediction of the direction of prices for the next day.

Furthermore, when interpreted properly in the light of human judgment, the shape of a bar, especially when considered in conjunction with adjacent or nearby bars, was found to possess an ability to forecast a reversal of major trend.

After long and expensive historical research and translation of old records into English, the Candlestick approach to price charting was brought to the Occidental world about 25 years ago. In the early years, the Candles developed a following only very slowly. More recently, however, professional traders and investors, as well as those who do not trade or invest for a living, have begun to appreciate the advantages of the Candlesticks, to the point at which it seems reasonable to predict that they will be the standard within the foreseeable future.

What is so unusual about the Candles? In short, they form patterns which have meaning in terms of revealing traders’ theretofore-hidden investment rationale, and also in terms of allowing forecasts to be made regarding the future course of price action. Some of these visual formations or images are useful in foretelling the end of a trend and a possible topping out and rollover to the downside (if the major trend has been one of increasing prices) or of bottoming out and rolling to the upside (if the major trend has been one of declining prices).

At the top of an extended rising market, one of the more dependable reversal patterns is the “Evening Star,” a three-bar pattern in which the first bar is a tall white bar; the middle bar is a small “Star” which usually sits higher than the first bar; and the third bar is a tall black candle which usually sits lower than the Star. This formation is bearish in its implications; and the implication is strengthened if the Star is a “Shooting Star,” which looks like its namesake. At the end of an extended declining market, the inverse pattern can also appear; and, perhaps not unexpectedly, its name is the “Morning Star.”

The opposite of the Shooting Star is the “Hammer,” which appears only at the end of an extend downtrend. The Hammer is considered to be one of the more reliable predictors of a possible change of trend to the upside, especially when the next day’s closing price is higher than the closing price of the Hammer.

A “Doji” is a price bar in which the opening price and the closing price are the same. It is considered to be an indicator of a reining-up - of indecision - and of a possible change of trend, when it appears at the end of an extended move in either direction. A Star whose opening price and closing price are the same is called a “Doji Star.” A “Bearish Engulfing” pattern occurs at the top of an uptrend, and is marked by the “real body” (i.e., the cylinder in the price bar) engulfing the real bodies of one or more previous bars. The “Bearish Engulfing” formation is, quite naturally, bearish. Its converse is the Bullish Engulfing pattern, which occurs at the bottom of a downtrend; and, obviously, carries a bullish signal.

In Candlestick parlance, gaps (”windows”) are celebrated as being generators of support and resistance. Often, a comparison of price action before and following a gap clearly reveals the power of a gap to repel prices which venture within it.

The Candles are useful in any time frame, including day trading. Although they are valuable in foretelling reversals, they do not predict the extent of a move. They are perfectly compatible with all “Western” Indicators, and the synergy which often results from the Candles and the Western Indicators used together can be remarkable. Furthermore, the Candles are equally adaptable to use in every financial market, including stocks, indexes, commodities, and Forex.

Technical analysis of Japanese Candlestick price imaging is founded on the hypothesis that price action in the financial markets is not random or mechanical; rather, that it is patterned (if the practitioner is following Elliott Wave theory), and that it is the result of human emotion in action.

There are many practitioners of Candlestick analytics who make their services available to the investing public. Some of them publish investment advisory newsletters (alternatively called “investment newsletters” or “market letters” or permutations thereof); some offer instructional and training seminars, forums, and chat rooms; some publish books; and some of them offer multiple services and products. Their observation of the Candlestick world sometimes leads to a critique of the common wisdom as propounded by the media, and to explicit review of, and commentary on, the state of the markets. Expostulation of the Candlestick analytical technique is not commonly a part of financial news programs, either in the popular printed media or on television; nor are the particulars of Candle theory often the subject of study, research, investigation, or illustration for the benefit of the investing public.

This is unfortunate, because the information which flows from these concepts could often open up new possibilities for investors and be of value to them in their decision making process.

http://www.candlewave.com

This article discusses the how to to profit from commodity pyramid trading.

These key points will help you learn this technique:

1. What is Commodity Pyramid Trading?
2. Commodity Pillar Trading Comparison
3. Commodity Pyramid Trading Comparison
4. Commodity Pyramid Trading Useful Tips

1. What is Commodity Pyramid Trading?

This is a method of trading commodity futures contracts in such a way that when the profit from a single trade equals the current margin for the commodity, the profit is used to self-finance an additional futures contract. This self-financing process can take either of two methods: Pillar trading or Pyramid trading.

The Pillar trading method involves adding one futures contract to your position during each self-finance round, while Pyramid trading adds one futures contract - but from each active futures contract with each self-financing step. This results in a doubling of your position during each self-financing step.

Both pyramid trades and pillar trades (hereinafter referred to as pyramid trades) should exhibit several characteristics which make them high profit potential candidates. These characteristics include:

• The market is quiet and has exhibited low volatility for several months.
• The margin for the commodity is relatively low.
• The market is set up for a major move. This is evidenced by extreme commercial/public signal, as well as a 12-month high or 12-month low on the daily price chart with a likely 1-2-3 Top or Bottom price chart pattern in the process of unfolding.

A VERY IMPORTANT NOTE: The biggest danger in any futures trade is a limit move which goes against your position. With a single futures contract, this is risky enough. With multiple futures contracts, this risk is seriously compounded. However, if you monitor the market conditions (both technical and fundamental market conditions) and the financial news on a daily basis, you will generally receive a timely warning of an impending limit move which may go against your position - giving you time to close out your position before that occurs.

The Pyramid Trading Form

The Pyramid Trading Form is at the heart of helping you to successfully implement and manage these trading strategies. It contains areas that will let you monitor and track up to three commodities using this trading strategy. Each area allows for up to 7 futures contracts to be held in the pillar trade position, and up to 64 futures contracts in the pyramid trade position.

How To Identify A Good Pyramid Trade Candidate

At any point in time, there will be several commodities with differing degrees of profit potential. However, it is important that you identify the commodity which has the best chance of being a profitable pyramid trade. This means that you must perform a current analysis of all commodities to identify the commodity that meets the following requirements.

a. You must first use the Commercial/Public selection tools to identify the commodities that appear to be ready to make a major move.

b. Of these commodities, identify those that appear to be making either a 1-2-3 Top or 1-2-3 Bottom in the daily price chart. Calculate the daily 50% retracement target for each one. Also calculate the dollar amount the move represents.

c. Where applicable, use the weekly chart to calculate the weekly 50% retracement target for each commodity. Again, calculate the dollar amount the move represents if the weekly target is attained.

d. Identify the margin requirement for each commodity. The ideal pyramid trade will be one with a relatively small margin requirement and with a dollar amount profit potential that is at least three times the margin requirement for the commodity.

e. The commodity that you select must be a quiet commodity - that is, one which does not have wild price swings.

f. The commodity you ultimately select as the best pyramid trade candidate must also have enough time to allow the move to unfold. This means you need to get into a more distant month to minimize loss from commission switch requirements (which can be expensive with 16 or more contracts in your position). Select the more distant commodity contract month that has 120-180 days available until the Last Trading Day (LTD).

g. The commodity which you have selected must have a daily volume of at least 10,000 contracts for adequate liquidity. Open interest should also be 10,000 or more.

It’s important to remember that once you are in a trade, you must religiously perform an analysis on a daily basis so as to identify any changes in the original analysis that may adversely impact your trade. In addition, you should always monitor fundamental “news” which will affect the price of the commodity. For example, if you’re short Orange Juice - and Florida has a freeze warning - close your position fast!

2. Commodity Pillar Trading Comparison

The commodity pillar trading strategy is the least risky of the two strategies because you only acquire one contract with each applicable price (profit) increase.

An example pillar trade resulted in $12,650 profit (before commissions). During the trade, your total risk was confined to $400 or less. If you had traded only one futures contract (with a 93.79 entry price, and a 94.92 exit price), your gross profit would have been $2,825. The pillar trading strategy produced the additional profit.

3. Commodity Pyramid Trading Comparison

The commodity pyramid trading strategy is the most risky of the two strategies because you acquire two contracts with each applicable price (profit) increase. This results in a risky “inverted pyramid” position which, if not intelligently managed can produce significant losses.

An example Pyramid Trade resulted in $72,200 profit (before commissions). During the trade your total risk was confined to $4,600 or less. Again, if you had traded only one futures contract, your gross profit would have been $2,825. The pyramid trading strategy produced the additional profit.

4. Commodity Pyramid Trading Useful Tips

There are several things which you must do when using the commodity pyramid trading technique described in this course. Failure to do so will likely invite grief into your life.

* You must perform an analysis of the markets to identify an ideal pyramid trading opportunity. Having done that, you need patience and commitment to wait for the inevitable move in price. Your previous efforts at paper trading have given you the confidence and skills to identify major moves. Trust your skills.

* Get into the more distant futures contract to avoid the need to “switch” contracts. The commission on 64 contracts at $40 per contract will cost you an extra $2,560 in commissions each time you switch.

* You must monitor your position daily. This involves being aware of what the analysis “tools” (described in my complete Commodity FUTURES Trading Course) are telling you about the current state of the market.

* Be aware of any “news” items which would have an impact (positive or negative) on the commodity you are trading. For example, if you are short in Orange Juice, a “freeze” warning in Florida will cause price to move against you, and can likely result in a limit move - a catastrophe you should immediately take steps to avoid!

* A price move generally results in a series of minor retracements; leaving a support point during an increase in price, and a resistance point during a decrease in price. It is a sensible strategy to place the stop-loss a little below the support point for the uptrend and above the resistance point for the downtrend.

* Timing of the order entry is critical. You need to predefine what your entry strategy will be during each phase of pyramid trading.

Closing Advice

You must do your homework and try different strategies using various price charts. By covering the price chart with a sheet of paper so you can’t see price action beyond the entry point, you can slowly move the sheet of paper rightward exposing subsequent price action. This technique lets you retroactively “simulate” various strategies and react to market changes. Of course, you should also be entering the applicable data into your Pyramid Trading Form to track your “simulated” trade. This will give you skills and confidence to use this pyramid trading technique.

Special Note: There is substantial risk in trading commodity futures and options.

(C) 2008 Thomas Wnorowski

Thomas Wnorowski’s flagship site Learn Futures contains contains 15 years of insight and techniques. His Commodity Futures Trading Course and Bullseye Commodity Trader Newsletter are tools you can use to educate yourself on Commodities and Options Trading.