Posts Tagged ‘inflation’

Build Your Investing With Global Forex Trading

Sunday, November 30th, 2008

Global forex trading(forex, of course, meaning the foreign exchange market) has become more and more popular in the last few decades, mostly due to the advent of the global economy. Never before has our economy been so intertwined with every other country’s. It’s perfectly common now for people to convert large amounts of money into various foreign currencies, then back again. The forex market is the largest market in the world, and includes everything from banks to governments to independent speculators. The daily volume of the global forex trading market exceeded four trillion dollars on average last year, making it a very attractive market to get involved in.

Several things separate global forex trading from other markets. Its trading volumes, the large number and variety of traders, the global dispersion, the variety of factors affecting exchange rates, low profit margins (but profits are often very high because of large volume trading), all contribute to make the global forex trading market the closest thing to the “perfect competition.” Foreign exchange has more than doubled since 2001.

Another way that global forex trading is separated from other markets, for example the stock market, is that it is divided into different levels of access. In the stock market, all competitors and investors have access to the same prices. In the global forex market, however, the inter-bank market is at the top. As the access level drops, the spread (that’s the difference between the bid and ask price) widens, though it’s still possible for a low-access individual to make large amounts of money.

While there isn’t a central market for forex traders, there is next to no cross-border regulation. Global forex trading is often referred to as OTC (over-the-counter), which makes for a large number of intertwined marketplaces. Therefore there isn’t so much a single exchange as a number of separate rates or prices, depending on which bank is doing the trading, and where it is. Differences in exchange rates are usually caused by changes in GDP (gross domestic product), inflation, interest rates, budget and trade deficits or surpluses, and other large-scale economic transactions and events.

Global forex trading is something not many people consider for investment (who would think that so much money lies in money), but worldwide forex trading continues to flourish for a reason. Individuals all over the globe are investing in the forex market and making thousands of dollars every day.

Find great forex information dealing with the forex market. Rick Williamson researches investment information at Forexebookstore.com.

Forex History

Thursday, November 13th, 2008

Firstable, What is the Forex Market

The Foreign Exchange Market (Forex) is a market where currencies are traded. Currencies such as the Euro, the US Dollar, the British Pound and many others are traded in the trillions every day.

Why?

People buy and sell these currencies because they fluctuate throughout the day making opportunities for the traders to make a quick profit. Because the movements are normally just cents the profits are small, but if you combine it with a big number of trades per day you’re looking at a hefty profit.

Forex History

Since 1874 to the First World War the gold standard ruled the world economy. Every money that was printed had to be backed by gold. Once a country’s economy started to climb, they needed to import heavily to keep up with the amounts of goods being sold. As this happened, since the only tradable currency a country had with a another was gold, their gold stock was depleted and it no longer represented the amount of money that was in circulation. This created inflation. The country’s economy soon came to a recession making the value of goods so cheap that other countries started to import from them having them fall in recession themselves while the other country recuperated.

As you can see this system offered a highly unstable economy. In 1944 nations got together to prevent currencies from fleeing across nations, and so the Bretton Woods Agreement was signed. The price of gold was set to $35 per oz and all other countries would do the same, setting their currencies to gold. If Britain set it’s oz of gold to 70, that means that to buy 1 US Dollar would cost them 0.50 Pounds. This prohibited speculation of currencies.

In 1971 the Gold Standard ended in 1971. The currencies of the world were no longer backed by gold which opened way to economic tools such as monetary policy. The value of the currency in each country was now what the market said it was. It’s value was represented by how well that countries economy was doing.

Forex History - A New Era

With the advances in technology, computers and the internet made Forex possible. Now people from around the world can speculate and trade currencies as they see fit. Along with computers came software that analyzed the market trends. Having almost unlimited analytical power, these softwares are able to examine huge amounts of historical data in order to make trade suggestions or even trade decisions for the user making profits without their focused attention making Forex history.

Want to make $200/day starting on day 1? Go to http://www.make-money-with-forex.info.

Sell In May And Go Away

Tuesday, November 11th, 2008

The US stock markets have performed nicely since the lows in March. However, it looks like this was a short term event. While football season is still months away, it is time to bring the defense out.

The Federal Reserve has signaled that they are done lowering rates for the time being. Without additional liquidity provided by the Fed, the markets have to focus on the economy. Unfortunately, the focus will be high oil prices, high food prices, and the fear of inflation.

The financial media is turning their focus on inflation and second guessing the movement of the Fed.
Confirmation of a recession in the US economy has not been made. While the economy is near stalling, it has not stalled yet. Does this mean the Fed lowered rates too much and created inflation? Probably not. But with a slow summer season for the media, the financial presses may take on the opinion that the Fed did lower too much and has created an inflation monster.

Investors have been worried about higher food prices as a confirmation of inflation. The reality is, higher food prices have come from the increasing use of bio-fuels. I am guessing that the high oil and food prices will start to come down after the Summer Olympics. China’s economy is running on full speed right now. After the Olympics, I think we will see the Chinese government tighten their rates to slow down their economy to a normal growth level. This should lessen the demand for oil.

For now, investors should be in a defensive mode for the summer. The use of inverse mutual funds is a nice vehicle to add to a portfolio. This will allow an investor to participate on the current downtrend in the market - and enjoy their summer.

John Rothe is President and Portfolio Manager of the Rothe Financial Group, based in McLean, VA. The Rothe Financial Group, LLC, is an independent money management firm focused on building and protecting the wealth of our clients through customized portfolio management solutions

For more information visit http://www.rothefg.com

Registered Representative.Securities offered through Cambridge Investment Research, Inc., a Broker/Dealer, Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment Advisor Representative. Cambridge Investment Research Advisors,Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor. Cambridge and Rothe Financial Group are not affiliated.

Juggling Economic Balls

Tuesday, November 4th, 2008

Lisa and I walked 5 miles around Boston to celebrate our wedding anniversary. The Swan boats, Italian food in the Northend, a new “doo” for Lisa on Newbury Street, and new summer sweaters for me(”About time you got some sweaters with bright colors!”, Lisa said).

At Fanueil Hall Marketplace we watched “Formerly known as ‘Jim the Juggler,’ now known simply as “Jim, from The Jim Show.” Jim does daffy juggling as children giggle and parents laughed (we laughed and giggled). Jim balanced on a large beach ball while juggling.
I cannot stand on a beach ball nor can I juggle. Yet every morning my brain attempts the economic juggle, a dance registered investment advisors do in their office (privately). No need to mention the balls required, but here is an outline of what each ball lofted represents.

Each subject has current relevance, especially when the market movers sell more stock than they buy. I will define and explain the relevance in my opinion.

  • Interest Rates
  • Bond Rates
  • Inflation

Other influences driving the stock market have aggregate affect, but individually lack market-moving clout. So, let’s look at what each subject means to the market.

Interest Rates: Lisa’s grandmother laments about the Bush administration while she longs for Jimmy Carter. “Those were the good ole days when the banks paid you for investing!” She remembers a call from a Florida stock broker offering her a 15% return on her $25,000 deposit. Of course, she and “Pa” never calculated their real rate of return (The inflation rate from June 1986 to June 1989 was 13.33% leaving 2.67% pre-tax real-rate of return)

Interest rates and inflation are the horse and cart of the economy. High Interest rates do not guarantee low inflation, nor that Lisa’s grandmother gets a “good-return” on her money. However, higher interest rates manage economies by affecting borrowing, corporate expansion, merger/acquisition activity (notice it slowed down on June 5, 2007), and currency values (U.S. dollar versus the Yen, as an example). Finally, the stock market dislikes high interest rates because there is less risk when buying bonds. You still with me?

News Flash! “Tracy Withers reports that “New Zealand’s central bank unexpectedly raised its benchmark interest rate to a record 8 percent, saying housing demand and consumer spending are fanning inflation. The currency rose to a 22-year high”

“Skellerup Holdings Ltd., which exports rubber goods used in medicine and irrigation, this week said full-year profit will fall by 34 percent because of the currency’s gain. The company is planning to stop some local production and fire workers because it is cheaper to make goods overseas, it said.”

Interest rate increases control inflation and can instigate sector recessions.

2. OK. On to Bond values. The bond market is all about the “cost of money”. Cheap money means mortgages, corporate buyouts, and stock market opportunity.

How come the bond market does not control interest rates? Perhaps because there is no immediate consensus, and bond traders might not consider inflation’s nasty economic slaps the way Federal Reserve Bankers do. Federal Reserve Bankers line their jackets and underwear with fabric imprints reading “Inflation”. Nothing matters more. At the Federal Reserve Bank water cooler, it’s all about inflation.

Bond traders are not numb to economic indicators. Sell-off’s in bonds push interest rates up and bond values/prices down. Bond traders don’t take risks with an greater courage than you or I. No one wants to lose money.

Joseph Keating, Chief Investment Officer for First American Asset Management thinks bond yields are now giving “competition” to stocks. Investors are observing bond yields, and consider bonds the “safer bet”. Stock buyers need a “premium” when buying stocks due to stock risk. This is known as “stock risk-premium”. When risk premiums are high, bonds fly.

Supply and demand drives pricing. So when bond buyers are attracted to higher yields, pricing gets tighter (bond prices go up and bond yields go down). This bond buying brings lower yields or lower interest rates in the bond market. Lower interest rates in the bond market decreases the risk premium making stocks attractive. When risk premiums are low, stocks grow. Fascinating, don’t you think?

Bond traders tend, in my opinion, to give weight to economic growth rather than to the value of the dollar. Dollar values may tell us more about inflation than any other indicator. Every commodity in America (and the dollar is no longer a commodity) is dollar-priced. If the dollar is down in value against other currencies, does it suggest that prices are inflated? Does this mean that someday, holders of the dollar will want more for what they can get with their lower-valued dollars? It seems so.

Inflation: No wonder the “Fed” worries about inflation. The insidious affect gets little attention from the public, but the result devastates buying power.

Tracking inflation started in 1914. Not much relevance tracking inflation from 1914 to now. However, we could try it from January 1997 to January 2007. From then to now, the inflation rate is 27.14%.
Now, let’s calculate what that means to your spending power. We can calculate the affect of inflation: $1+($1 x .2714)= $1.2714 or $1.27. This means your investment account per thousand must earn at least $270 more per thousand just to keep up with inflation.
The current Inflation Rate is 2.57%.

“Inflation causes reduced consumer spending, it squeezes profit margins,” said John Kornitzer, who manages $6 billion at Kornitzer Capital Management in Shawnee Mission, Kansas. (Bloomberg.com, U.S. Stocks Retreat on Inflation Concern…, Michael Patterson)

What do you prefer? High interest rates or low inflation? Juggle them if you can; for me, logic recommends asset allocation.

As a registered investment advisor, Ray Randall provides clients with tools to manage risk control as clients work toward investment goals. You may read more about him at Ethos Advisory.com Ray also manages the article bank and resource directory found at Echievements.com. Would you like to know how much risk your temperament permits? Fill out a request for a no-cost report on the Ethos Advisory Services contact page.

Australian Dollar’s Plunge

Thursday, October 30th, 2008

As we have seen the commodity markets fall, we have been forced to ask the question, “Is this the end of the commodity bull market or, one more decline in a multi-year trend?” The opposing forces of global inflation and waning demand have led to a considerable state of flux. Over the last couple of weeks, we have seen very wide ranges and declining open interest in several commodity sectors. We believe that it would be too easy for this run to come to an end in such an orderly fashion. Adding to the confusion, many of the markets continue to hold their weekly trend lines while others have penetrated their trends even within the same sectors.

Given the mass confusion, it may be easier to create a long position in a commodity based currency, rather than looking at each market individually. The Australian Dollar is our favorite of the commodity based currencies due to the broad base of commodities they provide to the world’s markets. Going back to last week’s idea, we have seen the Australian Dollar penetrate its weekly trend on declining open interest.

Over the last three weeks we have seen open interest decline by almost 25%. This indicates a market that is unsure of its future direction. If this were the initiation of a new downward trend, we would expect open interest to remain steady to higher, as each washed out long position would be replaced with new short position of equal or greater size.

Therefore, it may be time to act on last week’s idea. Place an order to buy the Australian Dollar at .9110 on a stop. This will force the market to begin to turn around and show some upward momentum before we get in. If the buy stop is filled, place a protective stop around .9048. Using the statistical analysis generated, we can expect the market to trade within boundary of .8929 and .9267 with a high probability over the coming two to three weeks. This is also provides option traders with the two essential factors for a successful trade - a price and time target. Please call for option details. 866-990-0777

Andy Waldock

http://www.commodityandderivativeadv.com

866-990-0777

The Importance Of Day Trading Margin In The Forex Market

Thursday, October 30th, 2008

The day trading margin is a common method in the forex market where traders buy and sell currencies as dollars, pounds, euros, yen and so on.

The profit possibility in this peculiar market is based on the fluctuation of the different currencies. This fluctuation is the consequence of from daily forecasts of the gross domestic product of the world nations and other factors that influence the value of a currency as the political stability, the inflation rates, official economic reports and the general economic conditions.

If the financial news regarding Europe are negative, for example, the foreign exchange traders will want to sell off their Euros because they fear the Euro is going to less value. When the Euro recovers, the same marketers will sell it for another currency, in order to make a profit.

All these currencies transactions are not literal, however, they are performed on margin, i.e. the buyer has not to pay all the sum he’s buying but only the 1%. This is what is called “buying on margin” or “buying on leverage”.

In the forex market you have to invest only $1000 to actually get $100,000. It’s possible because the fluctuations of the major world currencies are less than 1% a day, so your investment normally covers the gains and losses.

This fact alone marks an important difference between the forex market and the stock exchange where the typical fluctuation can be as much as 10% in one day.

The basic lot for trading the forex is normally 100.000 units (remember, the traders has to pay only 1000 for this lot) and many foreign exchange brokers don’t handle any lower sum.

However some firm allows to establish a day trading margin account with as little as $100. This solution is ideal for beginners traders because it offers a safe possibility to practice the currency trading market avoiding the risk of the standard trading account.

Forexyard, the leader in online currency trading, provides real-time execution, free forex charts and quotes, and 24 hour commission-free forex trading. When you decide to get a real money account you can establish a day trading margin account with as little as $100. Click here to check it out now!

Role of Corporate Finance in a Fiscal System

Monday, October 27th, 2008

The sector of finance wherein all the fiscal decisions are taken by conglomerates is called as corporate finance. It also includes the tools and analysis required to formulate such decisions. Corporate finance is majorly involved in capitalizing the business value at the same time as to lessening the fiscal jeopardy of the corporation.

Most frequently, the term “Corporate finance” has also been associated with investment banking. Corporate finance may be broadly categorized into long-term and short-term decisions and methods.

Under corporate finance, capital investment resolutions are long-term company investment decisions concerning fixed properties and assets arrangement. All the decisions are established on a number of unified standards. Such projects are required to be invested correctly. Hence capital investment decisions consist of an asset resolution, an investment resolution, and a payment resolution.

To meet the objective of corporate finance, it’s very important to finance the corporate investment correctly. Usually, the foundation of investment consists of a number of mishmash of liability and equity. If a project is financed through debt, it leads in a liability which requires to be examined. For this reason, there are chances of cash flow repercussions despite the achievement of the project.

Moreover, the organization must also try to equate the investment merge with the asset being financed as intimately as achievable, in both cases of timing and money courses. The payment is primarily estimated on the source of the company’s inapt income and its business scenario for the upcoming year. This is a common event, nevertheless there are exclusions.

About Author: Tia is an online leading expert in finance industry. She also offers top quality finance tips like :
How Does Inflation Affect the Economy, Timeline of American Currency

The Federal Reserve and its Role as U.S. Money Cops

Thursday, October 9th, 2008

The Federal Reserve is easily one of the most powerful–and misunderstood–of all American institutions. The Federal Reserve’s steady hand as America’s “central banker” has been especially critical to U.S. economic performance during the past 25 years. Why?

The management of fiscal policy (taxation and spending) during the majority of those years by various Administrations and Congresses was less than admirable. As a result, the enormous and irresponsible buildup of Federal debt remains, for now, our collective lasting legacy.

Today’s Federal Reserve–under the control of Chair Ben Bernanke–enjoys a very high level of credibility as an inflation fighter. In the world of central banks, there is no loftier objective…nor any greater success.

Inflation Control

The Federal Reserve’s number one responsibility is to maintain American price stability. It has been largely successful over the past 15 years in doing so, with consumer prices rising at an average annual rate of 2.7% since 1991. More comprehensive measures of inflation have risen at even lesser rates. In contrast, U.S. consumer prices rose an average of 6.2% annually during the ’70s and ’80s, with a painful bout of double-digit inflation in 1979 and 1980.

Today’s Fed is very concerned that higher energy prices now impacting the economy will contribute to a broad series of price increases for thousands of products and services across the economy. Such a pass-through of energy costs keeps Fed officials awake at night.

Add in volatile commodity and gold prices, the fear of further terrorism in the U.S. and abroad, enormous purchases of U.S. Treasury securities by foreign investors, and a handful of other topics, and one gets a feel for the life of a Fed official. It is not for the faint hearted.

In its efforts to maintain price stability, the Fed many times is called upon to…

1) “take the punch bowl away from the party” (to slow the economy) when it gets a bit too rowdy

2) administer preventive “medicine” to its patient (the U.S. economy) when necessary in order to minimize the chance of a more serious “inflation disease” later, which would require even more drastic action (more painful medicine)

Note: Most changes to monetary policy are enacted by the Fed adding reserves to or withdrawing reserves from the banking system through a process called open market operations. The result of such moves is to increase or decrease the Fed’s most critical interest rate, the federal funds rate. The federal funds rate is the rate at which commercial banks and certain other financial institutions invest excess funds with other commercial banks on an overnight unsecured basis.

The federal funds rate is easily the most important of ALL short-term interest rates. Changes in the federal funds rate immediately impact the level of all other short-term interest rates, including the prime lending rate and various short-term investment rates. The discount rate, the other rate controlled by the Fed, is now almost irrelevant in today’s conduct of monetary policy.

The “Dog” and the “Tail”

While many of the Federal Reserve’s official responsibilities remain unchanged from earlier years, the nature of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy flexibility has changed markedly during the past 25 years. In my opinion, the Federal Reserve is no longer the primary determinant of when monetary policy changes are necessary–the U.S. bond market is.

Since the Federal Reserve’s creation in 1913 until perhaps the late 1970s, the Federal Reserve solely determined monetary policy. The nation’s bond market–much smaller during those times–then quietly fell in line. During that era, the Federal Reserve was the “dog,” while the bond market was the “tail.” This relationship has now reversed.

Today’s reality is that the Federal Reserve, to a large extent, provides the monetary policy mix that is demanded by a powerful and very inflation-sensitive bond market. The market is now the “dog,” while the Federal Reserve is the “tail.”

Today’s inflation-wary bond market provides the Federal Reserve with less monetary policy flexibility than at any time in its history. Any future Federal Reserve attempt to over-stimulate U.S. economic growth with “easy money” would be met with rising long-term interest rates (to protect lenders/investors from impending higher inflation) and cries of Federal Reserve irresponsibility.

Conducting Monetary Policy

How is proper monetary policy determined by the Federal Reserve? The Fed is clearly concerned about the inflation implications of today’s historically tight labor markets and the wage pressures that could result.

In addition (and figuratively speaking), today’s Federal Reserve conducts monetary policy using an old-style balancing scale with four trays.

In separate trays, the Fed balances:

1) Criticism from the “hawks,” who see inflation under every rock. The hawks are typically critical of the Fed, noting that the institution is not aggressive enough in diffusing inflationary expectations

2) Criticism from the “doves,” who constantly argue that monetary policy is too restrictive. The doves argue that the Fed has usually gone too far in monetary tightening or not eased policy enough, and that the Fed frequently threatens the economy with the “r” word…recession

3) Recent price performance of gold and various other commodities. Price movements in these commodities can serve as inflation red flags, as well as signs of monetary policy that is too restrictive

4) The current shape and slope of the U.S. Treasury yield curve, including the most recent direction of 10-year U.S. Treasury Note and 30-year U.S. Treasury Bond yields. Such information provides a clue as to the bond market’s collective view of inflation expectations

Only when all trays are in “relative balance” does the Fed consider monetary policy to be appropriate.

The Fed must also consider the inflation implications of U.S. dollar strength or weakness relative to other global currencies. The Fed must also consider the conduct of monetary policy by other major central banks including the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan…

…not a task for the faint-hearted

Economic futurist Jeff Thredgold is President of Thredgold Economic Associates, a professional speaking and economic consulting company.

Since 1976 Jeff’s weekly economic and financial newsletter, Tea Leaf, has been helping people make sense of the tangled maze of the U.S. and global economy and financial markets in a light, approachable style. Sign up to receive the free Tea Leaf email newsletter and let Jeff Thredgold show you how to use this information to enhance your financial well-being for years to come.

Jeff is the author of econAmerica: Why the American Economy is Alive and Well…and What That Means to Your Wallet (Wiley, 2007), and On the One Hand…The Economist’s Joke Book.

His career includes 23 years with $96 billion banking giant KeyCorp, where he served as Senior VP and Chief Economist. He now serves as economic consultant to $50 billion Zions Bancorporation, which has banks in 10 states.

Emotion and Stock Trading

Sunday, September 16th, 2007

The stock market is driven solely by human emotion. Nothing else really matters. Human emotion is driven by perception, and perception is jaded by expectations. If your expectations are not met, than your perception is that this is bad. So if your expectations are high, chances are you will be disappointed. The trick then is to gauge the expectations that stock traders have at any given moment. Unfortunately there is no reliable measurement that I know of to gauge expectations.

Much of any days movement can be attributed to the daily news. And most of the time it can be narrowed down to the day’s economic news. There are of course non-economic events that shape the trader’s expectations. Politics, war, disasters, etc., but barring any unusual activity in these areas, the economic news is the driving force of most trading day’s activity. The notable exception is during ‘earnings season’, but we will be writing a whole article covering this at a later date. Suffice it to say however, earnings are the epitome of our theme presented here. Traders usually have scenarios in their heads, expectations if you will. They expect inflation to fall or rise, interest rates therefore will either fall or rise in lock step fashion with inflation. Indicators are used to predict inflation such as productivity, employment, consumer sentiment etc. And traders, have expectations of all these figures as the month goes on. They use their expectations to gauge whether these numbers come in as good news or bad news. In high inflationary times, a report on higher unemployment actually becomes a positive. Because higher unemployment means consumers have less money, thereby inflationary pressures will ease. But if the economy is perceived to be in a recession, than a report on higher unemployment is seen as negative, because we are not likely to pull ourselves out without people working.

And then to add to the confusion there are times when the numbers come in better than expected and the market still tanks. What gives to all of this confusing melting pot of expectations, perceptions and emotions? Well, one thing I can tell you, don’t read too much into the standard market reports given at the end of the trading day. They are valuable in that they are nothing more than a report driven by the same emotions that drive the market. However, their downfall is that they fail to recognize this. Daily reports report the exact condition of the human psyche, without ever recognizing that the psyche is the market. They can’t separate the two, and therefore their weakness is, that the psyche is an ever changing environment, and rarely stays the same two days in a row. Unless there is that rare and exceptional event that the whole world is focusing on. Sometimes the market just sells off, because it is time to. Sometimes it rallies because is just time to. If our expectations are that the market will go higher, because the economic data points that way, it will. But there will come a time, when the economic data fail to, or when our rosier than rosy scenario, shows a chink somewhere in that shining armor. And viola, nobody buys that day, or two days or week. Nothing in reality has changed except our emotions.

The trick to making money off all this is, watch the expectations. Watch the perceptions, and then watch the technical factors of the market, and the industries. If there is a bull move in housing say. And the underlying factors are there for home building, i.e. low interest rates. And the industry is moving along just fine, without speculative fever. This is the time you watch it, and wait. There will be some bad news along the way. Maybe even just a pause in housing permits, maybe an uptick in interest rates, for a very silly reason. And watch the band wagon empty out. This is when you buy, not while it is falling, but when it stops falling. This is the easiest band wagon to jump on. One that is stopping at the bus stop. Don’t jump on the moving bus, wait for it to stop. Likewise that is when you jump off too, not after it has gone into reverse. But when it has stopped. The easiest part of any move, is the middle part. The beginning is hard to see, the end is full of unpredictability and wild price changes, but ahh that middle. The boring old middle, full of narrow trading days, and small incremental price jumps. Nobody prints articles about that, it isn’t sexy or romantic. It is just profitable.

The other nice thing about the middle of any move, is it is backed by solid economic data in its favor. Any time there is unfortunate reports, people jump off slowly. The uptrend stops, not reverses. Because speculation hasn’t hit yet. Expectations are not unrealistic. And it doesn’t show up in the daily reports yet. The daily reports are filled with information about sectors that are either at the bottom or the top of their speculative run. Because without recognizing it they are reporting on the sectors that have the strongest emotions. And the two strongest emotions driving the market are none other than fear and greed. And when are fear and greed are at their most prominent, at the top and the bottom.

Trade without fear and greed, and you will trade well.

Now what to do about those daily reports? How to trade off of them? You trade opposite them. Not the day they are printed. When oil or housing are booming out of control and EVERYONE is talking about it. You put large cap oil and housing stocks on your watch list and wait. A month or two or three it isn’t exact science here. Dealing with human emotions never is, just ask Freudians. But you wait, until they stop making news highs, until they start making lower highs, then you short them. Or vice versa when techs crashed. You wait, and when they stop making lower lows, you buy them. But not just any stocks, large caps, quality stocks with real value, like earnings, assets, maybe even a dividend or two. Shorting large caps makes sense too, as they are easier to borrow, and they pretty much follow the trend, in fact in many industries they are the trend.

Trade without fear and greed, and you will trade well. Think for yourself and you will trade well. I encourage you to read my daily blog at http://livingonlargecaps.blogspot.com

For real time trading following these and other common sense principles.

CT Larsen has been trading stocks since 1990. Now trading large cap stocks exclusively. He has recorded three straight years of greater than 50% annual returns. You can read his blog at http://livingonlargecaps.blogspot.com

How to Do Stock Market Research

Thursday, September 6th, 2007

As you enter the world of stock trading, you gradually realize that you cannot survive, much less succeed, here unless you do a serious stock market research.

Stock market research is a highly intricate process and requires lots of time, expertise and experience. You have to learn to do fundamental and analytical research in order to study price movement of various stocks. While fundamental research involves studying the financial documents of the company whose stock you are interested in, the technical research involves analyzing the charts and graphs that try to predict the stock movement within a specific time frame.

All this work requires lots of time, attention and perseverance, which is not every one’s cup of tea. Most stock traders do a part of the research themselves and also receive expert’s guidance from their stock broker as well.

It must be clearly understood that the job of your broker is not limited to just executing your orders instantly. He also provides you the appropriate and efficient research facilities and tools through research section of his website that enable you to take important trading decisions fast and efficiently.

Some of these facilities include latest stock market price quotes and charts, news headline, symbol finder, stock screener, market scanner and so on.

When you think of trading a particular stock, first of all you need to find its trading symbol. This symbol identifies the stock. You enter the symbol on the relevant page of the website and get its price latest to the second. You can find whether the price of the stock is going up or down and also by what percentage it is doing so. The interface provides the opening price of the stock on that day, the high and the low levels the price reached, its bid price and ask price, the 52-week highest and the lowest price, the average trade volume and so on. You may also see a graph showing the price movement of the stock in course of the trading day. All this information is of crucial importance for an investor and even slightly wrong information can play havoc with trading prospects.

News headlines are another cardinal feature of the fundamental stock market research. The latest news flashes point to the overall market scenario of the trade and industry at local, regional, national and international levels. The news flashes provide every piece of information that may be necessary in formulating your trading decisions. The newsflashes contain information about the important companies whose stocks may appear interesting to the investors. You get to know the opinions of important government functionaries about the trade and economy of the country. For example, your anxiety about the effects of inflation on the country economy may be reduced by the news flashed on 3rd June, 2008 at 8.49 a.m that said: Fed Talk: Bernanke Sees Inflation Moderating Next Year.

The newsflashes too are updated by seconds.

Yet another important tool which may be called by any name, say stock screener, provides information about hot stocks in various industrial sectors. You can get the required information in three simple steps in a matter of seconds. You need to choose the name of the industry from the pull down list, then choose the sector and click on the View Results button to see the position of the stocks under the chosen sector. You also find the names of the most active stocks on a particular day.

If you are interested in investing in ETFs, you can look for ETF Center on the relevant page of the Website. You can get a snapshot of the overall ETF investment scenario. Here too you can get the latest price of a particular ETF, the percentage change in price whether it is going up or down along with the total trade volume at a particular time on any working day. The page also contains the open price, last price, day change, day high and low, 52-week high and low price position, average daily volume, shares outstanding, premium/ discount amount, premium/discount percentage and so on. This information is followed by the daily performance chart of the fund. The page also provides the dividend payment details. The portfolio data contains information about the average P/E, average P/B, average market cap, average turn over and so on.

The latest to the second information can be provided only if the website of the broker is backed by the latest state-of-the-art technology.

Open an account with Sogotrade

Why choose Sogotrade: SogoTrade Online Brokerage.