forex fire

I’m going to share with you some of my real time currency trading advice that can really help you improve your trading experience and profitability. This market is quite unique because it has over three trillion dollars being traded each day and it’s open 24hrs a day. That makes it such a powerful market for a lot of people to trade in. If you have a full time job, you can easily come home in the evening and make some trades. It’s the easiest way for a person to make a second income for themselves. I’ve been trading in this market for a few years now and I’ve learned a lot in that time that I’m going to share with you.

Real time trading requires you to be aware of any volatile behavior in the market or that may come to the market while you’re in the middle of a trade. It isn’t the most enjoyable trading experience when you move into a trade right before the market goes chaotic. This is why I suggest you start watching the news. Just regular news. The reason is that they talk about the economy and you should be able to dig up what will cause the market to have issues. Pay attention to the central bank and the general economic indicators. The central bank changes its interest rates to change the supply of money. Obviously this changes the price. A raise in interest, will raise the price. A decline in interest, will decline the price. It’s very simple.

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Global forex trading(forex, of course, meaning the foreign exchange market) has become more and more popular in the last few decades, mostly due to the advent of the global economy. Never before has our economy been so intertwined with every other country’s. It’s perfectly common now for people to convert large amounts of money into various foreign currencies, then back again. The forex market is the largest market in the world, and includes everything from banks to governments to independent speculators. The daily volume of the global forex trading market exceeded four trillion dollars on average last year, making it a very attractive market to get involved in.

Several things separate global forex trading from other markets. Its trading volumes, the large number and variety of traders, the global dispersion, the variety of factors affecting exchange rates, low profit margins (but profits are often very high because of large volume trading), all contribute to make the global forex trading market the closest thing to the “perfect competition.” Foreign exchange has more than doubled since 2001.

Another way that global forex trading is separated from other markets, for example the stock market, is that it is divided into different levels of access. In the stock market, all competitors and investors have access to the same prices. In the global forex market, however, the inter-bank market is at the top. As the access level drops, the spread (that’s the difference between the bid and ask price) widens, though it’s still possible for a low-access individual to make large amounts of money.

While there isn’t a central market for forex traders, there is next to no cross-border regulation. Global forex trading is often referred to as OTC (over-the-counter), which makes for a large number of intertwined marketplaces. Therefore there isn’t so much a single exchange as a number of separate rates or prices, depending on which bank is doing the trading, and where it is. Differences in exchange rates are usually caused by changes in GDP (gross domestic product), inflation, interest rates, budget and trade deficits or surpluses, and other large-scale economic transactions and events.

Global forex trading is something not many people consider for investment (who would think that so much money lies in money), but worldwide forex trading continues to flourish for a reason. Individuals all over the globe are investing in the forex market and making thousands of dollars every day.

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Lisa and I walked 5 miles around Boston to celebrate our wedding anniversary. The Swan boats, Italian food in the Northend, a new “doo” for Lisa on Newbury Street, and new summer sweaters for me(”About time you got some sweaters with bright colors!”, Lisa said).

At Fanueil Hall Marketplace we watched “Formerly known as ‘Jim the Juggler,’ now known simply as “Jim, from The Jim Show.” Jim does daffy juggling as children giggle and parents laughed (we laughed and giggled). Jim balanced on a large beach ball while juggling.
I cannot stand on a beach ball nor can I juggle. Yet every morning my brain attempts the economic juggle, a dance registered investment advisors do in their office (privately). No need to mention the balls required, but here is an outline of what each ball lofted represents.

Each subject has current relevance, especially when the market movers sell more stock than they buy. I will define and explain the relevance in my opinion.

• Interest Rates
• Bond Rates
• Inflation

Other influences driving the stock market have aggregate affect, but individually lack market-moving clout. So, let’s look at what each subject means to the market.

Interest Rates: Lisa’s grandmother laments about the Bush administration while she longs for Jimmy Carter. “Those were the good ole days when the banks paid you for investing!” She remembers a call from a Florida stock broker offering her a 15% return on her $25,000 deposit. Of course, she and “Pa” never calculated their real rate of return (The inflation rate from June 1986 to June 1989 was 13.33% leaving 2.67% pre-tax real-rate of return)

Interest rates and inflation are the horse and cart of the economy. High Interest rates do not guarantee low inflation, nor that Lisa’s grandmother gets a “good-return” on her money. However, higher interest rates manage economies by affecting borrowing, corporate expansion, merger/acquisition activity (notice it slowed down on June 5, 2007), and currency values (U.S. dollar versus the Yen, as an example). Finally, the stock market dislikes high interest rates because there is less risk when buying bonds. You still with me?

News Flash! “Tracy Withers reports that “New Zealand’s central bank unexpectedly raised its benchmark interest rate to a record 8 percent, saying housing demand and consumer spending are fanning inflation. The currency rose to a 22-year high”

“Skellerup Holdings Ltd., which exports rubber goods used in medicine and irrigation, this week said full-year profit will fall by 34 percent because of the currency’s gain. The company is planning to stop some local production and fire workers because it is cheaper to make goods overseas, it said.”

Interest rate increases control inflation and can instigate sector recessions.

2. OK. On to Bond values. The bond market is all about the “cost of money”. Cheap money means mortgages, corporate buyouts, and stock market opportunity.

How come the bond market does not control interest rates? Perhaps because there is no immediate consensus, and bond traders might not consider inflation’s nasty economic slaps the way Federal Reserve Bankers do. Federal Reserve Bankers line their jackets and underwear with fabric imprints reading “Inflation”. Nothing matters more. At the Federal Reserve Bank water cooler, it’s all about inflation.

Bond traders are not numb to economic indicators. Sell-off’s in bonds push interest rates up and bond values/prices down. Bond traders don’t take risks with an greater courage than you or I. No one wants to lose money.

Joseph Keating, Chief Investment Officer for First American Asset Management thinks bond yields are now giving “competition” to stocks. Investors are observing bond yields, and consider bonds the “safer bet”. Stock buyers need a “premium” when buying stocks due to stock risk. This is known as “stock risk-premium”. When risk premiums are high, bonds fly.

Supply and demand drives pricing. So when bond buyers are attracted to higher yields, pricing gets tighter (bond prices go up and bond yields go down). This bond buying brings lower yields or lower interest rates in the bond market. Lower interest rates in the bond market decreases the risk premium making stocks attractive. When risk premiums are low, stocks grow. Fascinating, don’t you think?

Bond traders tend, in my opinion, to give weight to economic growth rather than to the value of the dollar. Dollar values may tell us more about inflation than any other indicator. Every commodity in America (and the dollar is no longer a commodity) is dollar-priced. If the dollar is down in value against other currencies, does it suggest that prices are inflated? Does this mean that someday, holders of the dollar will want more for what they can get with their lower-valued dollars? It seems so.

Inflation: No wonder the “Fed” worries about inflation. The insidious affect gets little attention from the public, but the result devastates buying power.

Tracking inflation started in 1914. Not much relevance tracking inflation from 1914 to now. However, we could try it from January 1997 to January 2007. From then to now, the inflation rate is 27.14%.
Now, let’s calculate what that means to your spending power. We can calculate the affect of inflation: $1+($1 x .2714)= $1.2714 or $1.27. This means your investment account per thousand must earn at least $270 more per thousand just to keep up with inflation.
The current Inflation Rate is 2.57%.

“Inflation causes reduced consumer spending, it squeezes profit margins,” said John Kornitzer, who manages $6 billion at Kornitzer Capital Management in Shawnee Mission, Kansas. (Bloomberg.com, U.S. Stocks Retreat on Inflation Concern…, Michael Patterson)

What do you prefer? High interest rates or low inflation? Juggle them if you can; for me, logic recommends asset allocation.

As a registered investment advisor, Ray Randall provides clients with tools to manage risk control as clients work toward investment goals. You may read more about him at Ethos Advisory.com Ray also manages the article bank and resource directory found at Echievements.com. Would you like to know how much risk your temperament permits? Fill out a request for a no-cost report on the Ethos Advisory Services contact page.

I’m here to share some of my tips so you can trade currency online. With the birth and expansion of the internet into most people’s homes, this currency trading market has opened up to a new world of people. This makes it an exciting and profitable way to make money from home.

What should be the most important point I trade on?

You need to understand the basics of a trade because it becomes very easy to identify. We are always looking for the best buy. When I goto the grocery store, I’m looking for deals and bargains for my shopping needs. No one wants to spend more money than they have to. The problem is that you’re consuming and this isn’t what you’re doing in the currency market, you’re trading.

To profit in a trade, you need to sell for more than you buy. This makes the exit price far more important than the entry price. Entry price is irrelevant if you expect the exit price to be much higher. If you have a currency that costs $10 per unit and it is expected to go up 10%, that is far better than a currency worth a penny that is expected to go up 5%.

What are central banks role in the market?

To put it bluntly, central banks control the amount of money that enters and for the most part the money that leaves it. This means they are the gatekeepers of the supply of money. Since money is still governed by supply and demand, this makes the price vulnerable to central bank policies.

The way they change the amount of currency entering the economy is by changing interest rates. You’ll often hear on the news that the “Fed” has cut interest rates or something along those lines. This signifies a change in the amount of money entering the economy. A cut means more money is coming in, so more supply means a lower currency price. A raise means less money is coming in, so less supply means a higher currency price.

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Most of us strive really hard throughout our lives in order to have enough resources to materialize our dreams, or get monetary resources to handle any type of eventuality. Assets and other resources are built for this goal so that these can be trusted upon for financial help whenever there is a need. Through the secured types of borrowings, anyone can very easily capitalize on the items of immovable assets he/she has built up in order to solve any type of financial difficulty.

Anyone might face any type of financial difficulty in today’s times, considering the ways of modern style of living, the costly education of kids, housing, cars and what not. An individual might require money for any purpose like home renovation, car purchasing, debt consolidation plans, education bills, wedding expenditures, business requirements and many more. For all such needs, the funds can be very easily availed through secured types of loans, provided you are willing to pledge your item of immovable property with the credit giver.

The clients requiring huge amounts of funds find the facility of secured loans a real helping financial tool. The items of property are pledged with the credit giver with almost no danger of losing it to the lender. This is because of the long loan period of 5 to 25 years which is allowed to the clients for the repayment of the sum depending upon their own convenience and circumstances. The clients can take up a sum in the range of £5000 to £75000 to cater to their daily over personal needs and requirements.

These loans are available at very low interest rates, because of the security that the credit provider has of this assurance regarding the repayment of the loan amount. But, if you want to search for the choices which are available to the clients and also the lowest rates get-able, you can go for an online search.

With the help of Secured loans the funds are made available to the clients at practically no risk. The borrowers thus can now fulfill all of their needs and requirements. The low rates of interest charged upon these loans also do not put extra burden on the credit taker.

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If you want to enjoy currency trading success, you need to catch and follow trends and spot turning points and this tool will help you - it’s an obvious tip in many respects but most traders simply don’t use it, so here it is.

It’s to look at other markets that impact on the currency you are trading and for the purposes of illustration let’s look at the US Dollar.

The dollar is a net importer of energy and high energy costs hurt it and the main one we are referring to here, is crude oil. In recent history when crude has hit high levels (and we have had recent tests of $100 a barrel) it has hurt the dollar and the retreat from this level has seen the dollar stabilize and rise.

Tops in the oil market recently have warned of dollar rallies.

Another major factor is interest rates.

Recently the dollar has been hurt by the perceived view that interest rates will be cut and you can get an idea of how much by looking at interest rate futures. When the interest rate futures rally too hard to fast and then fall, you can often see the dollar rally.

Why? Because traders get ahead of themselves - the recent rally in dollar euro was preceded by 100% consensus that interest rates will be cut by 50 bps (probably true) but gave 50 - 50 that rates would be cut by 75 bps (unlikely) the level of interest rate cuts factored into the market was overdone and prices in interest rate futures fell and the dollar rallied.

Tops in oil and interest rate futures can be used to warn of dollar rallies.

Another important variable is the stock market. Weak stocks hurt the dollar and strong stock markets support it - so watch it in fact if you want another tip:

If you are trading long term trends and only want to look at the prices of currencies once a day, do it just after the stock market closes. This closing price is always significant and while currencies trade 24 hours they are effectively thinly traded until Tokyo opens and the US stock market close sets the tone for the next day

Other currencies are also affected by outside influences:

The Canadian Dollar - Is a net exporter of oil and high prices of oil and other commodities are supportive of the currency

The Australian Dollar - Australia is a big producer of gold and when gold prices are high it supports the currency.

By looking at other markets that are important to a currency, you can often spot whether trends are going to continue or reverse. While it’s obvious that currencies don’t move in isolation, many traders do not bother to look at other markets for clues - if you do, you can get a trading edge.

A trading edge is what forex trading is all about and if you research this tip further, you will find it very useful as part of your forex trading strategy for bigger profits.

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When it comes to embracing net technology silver surfers are leading the way, according to recent research from two leading online advertising and measurement companies.

Those aged 55 and over are classified as silver surfers, referring to the prevalence of grey hair amongst the age group and research has identified that it is they who are logging on in ever greater numbers following the widespread roll-out of broadband across Europe. At the end of 2007 almost twice as many silver surfers were using the internet as at the start of the year, with a survey from net Value recording a staggering 90% increase.

So, proof that the older generation has eagerly embraced the internet and for them one particular feature is a godsend: online banking. Indeed, a survey by the European Interactive Advertising Agency (EIAA) found that 53% of silver surfer respondents did their banking online, taking advantage of the convenience of arranging their finances from the comfort of their own home.

The EIAA survey also found that older people spend almost 78% of their weekly average 8.8 hours online for personal reasons. As well as banking, the older generation also spend a lot of time investigating their family tree and shopping. They also spend more cash per head on the internet than any other age group, including surprisingly those in the 18 - 24 range, blowing apart the myth that the net is a youngsters’ phenomenon.

The major UK banks have not been slow to pick up on the rise of the silver surfer and typically offer products designed to appeal to more affluent people, particularly those looking for a monthly income from interest payments. So, in addition to providing day-to-day online banking via a current account most banks now offer online saving accounts, many of which offer a higher rate of interest than would be available through the branch network.

For example a monthly income online savings account can be set up to transfer the monthly interest automatically into the account-holder’s current account. Monthly income accounts are very popular amongst retired people as are other types of accounts that offer significantly higher interest rates in return for tying up the capital for a specified period.

It is these types of accounts that are attracting affluent and net-savvy silver surfers, although they are not exclusively for that age group. But, while the amount of older people on the net continues to grow you can be sure that banks will be rolling out accounts designed to appeal to them in ever greater numbers.

Disclaimer:
This article has been written for information and interest purposes only. The information contained within this article is the opinion of the author only, and should not be construed as advice or used to make financial decisions. Expert financial advice should always be sought and any links contained within this article are included for information purposes only.

The carry trade is one of the popular trades in the FX market. This potentially lucrative form of trading involves selling a currency with a low interest rate and buying a currency with a higher interest rate and earning from the interest rate differentials. This can be traded using as much or as little leverage as the trader feels suits his risk appetite.

For many years now, carry trades involving selling the Japanese Yen have been very popular due to Japan having a low central bank rate for many many years. In fact, Japan had 0% interest rates between 2000-2006 to try and help their poorly performing economy, this of course was highly attractive for carry traders. Today they are at 0.5%, still very attractive when we look at the central bank rates of many other countries:

* New Zealand 8.25%

* Australia 6.5%

* United Kingdom 5.75%

* United States 5.25%

* Canada 4.5%

* Eurozone 4%

* Japan 0.5%

Currently, The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) really stands out. If we wanted to do a carry trade that involved buying New Zealand Dollars and selling Japanese Yens there would be a 7.75% interest rate differential (8.25%-0.5%). This mean if we bought NZ$10,000 and sold the equipment number of yens, the trade would earn NZ$775 over a year. However, In reality we do not get this exact rate, the brokers take a slight cut and there are other factors too. I am sure some people find 7.75% per year attractive whilst other people may seek much higher returns in a trade off for greater risk. This is where leverage comes in. Many FX brokers nowadays allow very high amounts of leverage, I have seen upto 500:1. I will start writing about the risk factors involved in the carry trade before I go into detail about leverage, it will become clear why if you read on.

As with all FX trading there is considerable risk in the carry trades. When we buy our New Zealand Dollars and sell our Yens we are taking the risk on the currency pair NZD/JPY. Historically this pair has been on a strong uptrend until July 2007, so your carry trades would have earned the income from the interest rate differentials as well as the appreciation of value of your New Zealand Dollars against the Yen. However, with carry trades, there is always the risk of a major carry unwind. This where a huge number of carry trades are closed and the money goes back into japan. Historically, there have been a number of very major carry trade unwinds. The most obvious recent one was in July 2007. On the 22nd July 2007 the NZD/JPY rate was around 97. On the 17th August the rate hit 74.25. A huge drop. If had invested those NZ$10,000 at the top, they would only be worth around NZ$7600 at the bottom. A huge loss.

Trading the Carry Trade using leverage can be highly profitable. For example if you traded the NZD/JPY carry trade with 4:1 leverage, you would earn 4 times the income from the interest rate differentials, which would equate to around 30% in a year. However, the currency movements would affect you 4 times as much, both up and down. For example if price went from 60-90 during your carry trade. That would be a 50% gain. However, if 4:1 leverage was used it would be four times that, 200%. Now lets look at the recent occurrence where the nzd/jpy carry trade went from 97 to around 74.25 in a very short time. This is around a 24% loss, multiply this by 4 and it equates to a 96% loss. This would probably result in a margin call from your broker resulting in most of your account being lost. It is very important to fully understand the potential risks and rewards before acting live carry trades.

Some people prefer to trade GBP/JPY or EUR/JPY instead, the differential is currently smaller but swings tend to be considerably less in percentage terms.

On a final note, most FX brokers pay the interest differentials on a daily basis. If you use an MT4 broker, there is a SWAP section in your terming showing your open positions, this is the interest you have earned. If you open a position with negative interest rate differentials (e.g. A short nzd/jpy) you will have to pay the interest rather than receive it.

In Conclusion, The carry trade is a potentially lucrative way of trading/investing, however it is not without considerable risks, especially when traded with a large amount of leverage.

In Conclusion, The carry trade is a potentially lucrative way of trading/investing, however it is not without considerable risks, especially when traded with a large amount of leverage.

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Nothing ever seems to happen without causing some good. For instance, there seems to be a little uptick in analyzing our thinking, as a result of wading through this financial crisis.

Radicals are starting to say that simple cause and effect reasoning could have prevented the current financial crisis. You may remember cause and effect from school, where as a thinking skill it is second in popularity only to the skill of avoiding thinking completely. But could an understanding of cause and effect have made a difference in the financial crisis?

Undeniably, cause and effect has its uses. The neat thing about cause and effect is that it makes you look good without much effort. When you know that something causes a certain effect, you can easily impress your friends. You look up and see a bunch of dark clouds and you casually mention that you think it’s going to rain. Then sure enough, it rains. Clouds then rain: cause and effect. Just don’t tell anybody how you do it and you’ll get a reputation for being really smart.

Unfortunately, cause and effect can get tricky. After you start using cause and effect, you begin to believe that everything has a cause and that you can spot that cause. Not so fast; you’re getting a little ahead of yourself. Sometimes things just happen out of the blue, without warning or reason.

That’s the situation with the financial crisis. No matter what anybody says, the current crisis is just the result of bad luck. There was no cause. It just happened, like all those forest fires, droughts, 100-year floods, and mega-storms that people predicted would be caused by global warming. Get real; predicting something doesn’t actually mean that you know the cause.

Let’s take a closer look at the financial crisis. With something this large, which has created hardships for more than half of the US population, people will probably ask questions: Couldn’t something have been done to prevent it? Cause and effect reasoning might have put us on the right track, if only those government economists could have found cause for alarm.

But nothing was obvious enough to cause concern. You can see that if we look at the major pieces of this crisis.

Cheap, cheap money - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates, a lot. Who could know that cheap money would create a huge market of unsophisticated buyers and a huge industry of unscrupulous lenders?

Bait-and-switch loans, aka ARMs - Adjustable Rate Mortgage loans (ARMs) expanded the market and lender profits. And there was also something for consumers: low rates upfront and impossible rates to follow.

Inflated property appraisals - Lenders often worked with appraisers to inflate values and stimulate the market, creating what we now call “the housing bubble.” Sure the bubble attracted capital, but just because it was called a bubble, who knew it might burst?

Liar loans - Mortgage brokers from 2000 to 2007 routinely manipulated loan applications to let people get loans. Converting humbug into moolah is alchemy, not fraud.

Risk-free profits - Mortgage brokers quickly dumped new loans to avoid their default risk. Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac happily took on the debt with the backing of their rich uncle. Fannie and Freddie sound like the names of your slow-witted cousins; maybe if we called them Frances and Frederick they’d get a little more respect.

More profits - Weak loans were bundled, given blue-ribbon ratings, and sold to investors. Loan laundering is more important than money laundering because money has intrinsic value, while loans rely on a nice laundered appearance.

Reckless home buyers - People bought briefly affordable homes. Government economists didn’t see any problem at the time, but then they weren’t dealing with their own money. These economists now believe that home buyers should have known better.

This may seem confusing at first, because there were so many moving parts. Clearly, the government economists were perplexed. Were cause and effect signposts warning us of a crisis? Was danger lurking in harmless business activities? The economists wondered.

Once the crisis struck, of course, the wondering didn’t stop, but it changed focus. Now, the economists wondered if the economy was sound; everyone agreed it was. The politicians wondered how to bailout businesses, including Fannie and Freddie, whose lending practices were so outrageously unsound that they were on the verge of collapse.

As the focus shifts to working through the crisis, cause and effect is something of a hot potato in official circles. Politicians are looking for airtime to show us that they’re fully engaged after the fact. This may result in some cause-effect rhetoric, accusing the financial industry of causing the crisis. No doubt it will blow over after the November election.

In the short run, politicians do have a small dilemma. They want to convince us that they were smart enough to see the causes of impending problems, while avoiding the question of why they didn’t work to prevent the bad effects. Here is an example of why people in the know say that politics is a tough business.

You can see now that cause and effect reasoning fails to explain the financial crisis. There was no cause; the crisis was just bad luck. You can’t expect this thinking skill to fit in every situation.

In general, however, cause and effect reasoning could be a great tool for holding people accountable. Instead of telling each other to get over it and “move on,” we might start telling government to “hold on,” as in “we want to check this out.” This could cause unpleasantness in which responsible parties are held responsible, but it might have a cleansing effect.

Michael Durr is a marketer and writer. He publishes a website and blog on applied thinking, http://www.TheBusinessofThinking.biz

Visit the website to read an excerpt from his latest book, My Brain, My Future.

New figures from the National Association of Estate Agents (NAEA) have shown that although the housing market in the UK is still performing well, buyers are adopting a more cautious approach to property investment.

The association states that during the month of April, there was a stable performance in terms of the number of sales, viewings and and the average house sale price. According to the NAEA, the average number of viewings before a house was purchased was said to stand at 14. It asserts that while this is indicative of consumers being cautious about which property they invest in, the figure stands just two viewings higher than results from 2007.

For those who have found a desired property and are looking to find backing for a down-payment taking out a personal loan might be of use in providing the funding necessary to make an offer. However, figures from the group indicates that there is a minor drop in the number of people who are looking to purchase a property. Looking at the average number of buyers on its members’ books, the NAEA notes that while in March there were 249, in April that figure dropped to 237. It attributes this fall in part to difficult market conditions as a result of the credit crunch and a reduced number of mortgage approvals.

The National Association of Estate Agents asserts that while this has likely dented consumer confidence, there are indications that market conditions will get better in the coming months. Although some analysts have predicted a sharp decline in house prices, the association insists that such a drop is unlikely because other strengthening factors such as low unemployment, high interest rates and sustained spending are still prevalent, which the group suggests will buoy the property market.

Chris Brown, president of the NAEA, commented: “Many, especially first-time buyers, will be feeling the results of the credit crunch and tighter lending, leading to them being unable to move onto the ladder or up the chain. Some agents are also finding it difficult to stop sales falling through as people get ‘cold feet’ or fail to secure mortgages but we must remember that this happens in the best of markets. However, what people need to remember is that the market is stable and we are not seeing massive price drops. There are still strong economic factors at play, such as high employment and low interest rates and sales are still taking place.”

The statistics also showed that sales in the market remain stable despite tightened conditions, with each NAEA member selling an average of seven homes during the course of April. Such a figure has remained relatively unchanged since January of this year, the association asserts.

For those who are keen to enter the property market but have experienced difficulty raising the cash to put an initial payment down, taking out a secured loan may prove an effective course of action. A cheap secured loan may also be of use to those people who were recently revealed to be struggling to meet mortgage payments. The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors has suggested that a growing number of people will be at risk of repossessions in the coming months.

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